/LMAR=0/XLINE=3/USET=35␈↓ α,␈↓␈↓ ⊂F1


␈↓ α,␈↓α␈↓ ¬ Computers, arti≡cial intelligence, and intellectual work

␈↓ α,␈↓α␈↓ ε5by John McCarthy, Stanford University

␈↓ α,␈↓␈↓ α|Computer␈α⊃technology␈α⊃has␈α⊃already␈α⊃a≥ected␈α⊃intellectual␈α⊃work,␈α⊃but␈α⊃mostly␈α⊃in␈α⊃peripheral␈α⊃ways.
␈↓ α,␈↓More fundamental changes are in store for us.

␈↓ α,␈↓␈↓ α|At␈α∩present␈α∩we␈α∩have␈α∩word␈α∩processing,␈α∩we␈α⊃have␈α∩electronic␈α∩mail␈α∩and␈α∩we␈α∩have␈α∩databases.␈α∩ All
␈↓ α,␈↓of these are unevenly available.

␈↓ α,␈↓Word processing and document preparation

␈↓ α,␈↓␈↓ α|I␈α⊂am␈α⊂preparing␈α⊂this␈α⊂paper␈α⊂at␈α⊂home␈α⊂using␈α⊂a␈α⊂terminal␈α⊂connected␈α⊂by␈α⊂private␈α⊂telephone␈α⊂line␈α⊂to
␈↓ α,␈↓a␈α∪computer␈α∪at␈α∪Stanford␈α∪University.␈α∪ It␈α∪is␈α∪one␈α∪of␈α∪several␈α∪thousand␈α∪≡les␈α∪in␈α∪the␈α∪computer␈α∪that␈α∪I
␈↓ α,␈↓can␈α⊗look␈α⊗at␈α⊗and␈α⊗modify␈α⊗at␈α⊗any␈α⊗time.␈α⊗ When␈α⊗I␈α⊗get␈α⊗done␈α⊗writing␈α⊗it,␈α⊗I␈α⊗will␈α⊗put␈α⊗in␈α⊗type-setting
␈↓ α,␈↓commands␈α∂and␈α∂print␈α∂it.␈α∂ I␈α∂have␈α∂had␈α∂a␈α∂terminal␈α∂at␈α∂home␈α∂since␈α∂1965,␈α∂but␈α∂only␈α∂in␈α∂1986␈α∂did␈α∂I␈α∂get␈α∂a
␈↓ α,␈↓good␈α↔quality␈α↔printer␈α↔at␈α↔home␈α↔capable␈α↔of␈α↔many␈α↔fonts␈α↔and␈α↔sizes␈α↔of␈α↔printing.␈α↔ I␈α↔suppose␈α↔most
␈↓ α,␈↓people who write professionally in the U.S. have some form of word processor now.

␈↓ α,␈↓␈↓ α|While␈α∃word␈α∃processing␈α∃facilities␈α∃can␈α∃be␈α∃improved,␈α∃greater␈α∃e≥ects␈α∃will␈α∃come␈α∃from␈α∃making
␈↓ α,␈↓them universally available than from the improvements.

␈↓ α,␈↓Electronic mail

␈↓ α,␈↓␈↓ α|Our␈α∀laboratory␈α∀has␈α∀used␈α∀electronic␈α∀mail␈α∀since␈α∀about␈α∀1970␈α∀and␈α∀has␈α∀been␈α∀connected␈α∀to␈α∀the
␈↓ α,␈↓ARPAnet␈α_since␈α_1971.␈α_ The␈α_ARPAnet␈α_and␈α_the␈α_other␈α_networks␈α_connected␈α_to␈α_it␈α_allow␈α_me␈α_to
␈↓ α,␈↓exchange␈α∪electronic␈α∪mail␈α∪in␈α∪minutes␈α∪with␈α∪people␈α∪all␈α∪over␈α∪the␈α∪U.S.␈α∪and␈α∪as␈α∪far␈α∪away␈α∪as␈α∪Japan,
␈↓ α,␈↓Sweden␈α→and␈α→Israel.␈α→ However,␈α→the␈α→coverage␈α→is␈α→spotty.␈α→ There␈α→are␈α→many␈α→people␈α→at␈α→my␈α→own
␈↓ α,␈↓university with whom I still can't communicate electronically.

␈↓ α,␈↓␈↓ α|The␈α∩requirement␈α∩is␈α∩to␈α∩allow␈α∩all␈α∩systems␈α∩to␈α∩communicate␈α∩with␈α∩each␈α∩other␈α∩so␈α∩that␈α∩electronic
␈↓ α,␈↓mail␈α∪becomes␈α∪as␈α∪universal␈α∪and␈α∪simple␈α∪as␈α∪the␈α∪telephone.␈α∪ The␈α∪key␈α∪to␈α∪this,␈α∪in␈α∪my␈α∪opinion,␈α∪is␈α∪to
␈↓ α,␈↓use␈α⊗the␈α⊗telephone.␈α⊗ For␈α⊗the␈α⊗great␈α⊗majority␈α⊗of␈α⊗messages␈α⊗telephone␈α⊗connections␈α⊗maintained␈α⊗for
␈↓ α,␈↓short␈α→times␈α→are␈α→cheaper␈α→than␈α→the␈α→≡xed␈α→networks␈α→generally␈α→in␈α→use.␈α→ These␈α→≡xed␈α→networks␈α→-
␈↓ α,␈↓ARPAnet,␈α∪etc.␈α∪-␈α∪are␈α∪basically␈α∪a␈α∩mistake.␈α∪ Using␈α∪direct␈α∪telephone␈α∪connections␈α∪would␈α∪have␈α∪been
␈↓ α,␈↓cheaper and more general - and it still is.

␈↓ α,␈↓Databases and libraries

␈↓ α,␈↓␈↓ α|Thousands␈α∀of␈α∀databases␈α∀all␈α∀over␈α∀the␈α∀world␈α∀are␈α∀available,␈α∀but␈α∀most␈α∀of␈α∀the␈α∀potential␈α∀users
␈↓ α,␈↓≡nd␈α→them␈α→awkward␈α→to␈α→use.␈α→ I␈α→have␈α→used␈α→the␈α→on-line␈α→catalog␈α→of␈α→our␈α→university␈α→library,␈α→the
␈↓ α,␈↓Math≡le␈α&database␈α&of␈α%reviews␈α&of␈α&mathematical␈α&papers,␈α&the␈α&Books-in-Print␈α&database,␈α&a
␈↓ α,␈↓pharmaceutical␈α∂database␈α∂to␈α∂determine␈α∂the␈α∂properties␈α∂of␈α∂a␈α∂medicine␈α∂prescribed␈α∂for␈α∂me␈α∂and␈α∂a␈α∂few
␈↓ α,␈↓others occasionally.

␈↓ α,␈↓␈↓ α|What␈α⊂will␈α⊂revolutionize␈α⊂many␈α⊂kinds␈α⊂of␈α⊂intellectual␈α∂work␈α⊂is␈α⊂an␈α⊂electronic␈α⊂public␈α⊂library␈α⊂-␈α⊂e.g.
␈↓ α,␈↓the␈α⊃U.S.␈α⊃Library␈α⊃of␈α⊃Congress.␈α⊃ Even␈α⊃counting␈α⊃the␈α⊃cost␈α⊃of␈α⊃conversion,␈α⊃it␈α⊃is␈α⊃now␈α⊃cheaper␈α⊃to␈α⊃keep
␈↓ α,␈↓books␈α⊃on␈α⊃magnetic␈α⊃disk␈α⊃than␈α⊃on␈α⊃paper,␈α⊃and␈α⊃they␈α⊃can␈α⊃be␈α⊃accessible␈α⊃all␈α⊃over␈α⊃the␈α⊃world.␈α⊃ A␈α⊃pilot
␈↓ α,␈↓project␈α⊂for␈α⊂an␈α⊂electronic␈α⊂public␈α⊂library␈α⊂is␈α⊂being␈α⊂carried␈α⊂out␈α⊂in␈α⊂Marseilles␈α⊂under␈α⊂the␈α⊂direction␈α⊂of
␈↓ α,␈↓Michael Gri≠ths.
␈↓ α,␈↓␈↓ ⊂F2


␈↓ α,␈↓␈↓ α|It␈α∩will␈α∩be␈α∩such␈α∩a␈α∩pleasure␈α∩to␈α∩get␈α∩rid␈α∩of␈α∩ninety␈α∩percent␈α∩of␈α∩the␈α∩paper␈α∩in␈α∩my␈α∩home␈α∩and␈α∩o≠ce
␈↓ α,␈↓and be able to follow any reference to a book or article just by typing its name on my terminal.

␈↓ α,␈↓Electronic publishing

␈↓ α,␈↓␈↓ α|When␈α∂there␈α∂is␈α∂an␈α∂electronic␈α∂public␈α∂library,␈α∂there␈α∂will␈α∂be␈α∂a␈α∂revolution␈α∂in␈α∂publishing,␈α∂because
␈↓ α,␈↓an␈α∀author␈α∀or␈α∀even␈α∀a␈α∀would-be␈α∀author␈α∀can␈α∀publish␈α∀a␈α∀book␈α∀by␈α∀putting␈α∀it␈α∀in␈α∀the␈α∀database␈α∀and
␈↓ α,␈↓paying␈α≡a␈α≡few␈α≡dollars␈α≡a␈α≡month␈α≡disk␈α≡rental␈α≡for␈α≡keeping␈α≡it␈α≡there.␈α≡ Authors␈α≡will␈α≡then␈α≡be
␈↓ α,␈↓independent of publishers.  However, there is another important advantage.

␈↓ α,␈↓␈↓ α|When␈α↔something␈α↔controversial␈α↔is␈α↔published,␈α↔those␈α↔who␈α↔disagree␈α↔will␈α↔be␈α↔able␈α↔to␈α↔publish
␈↓ α,␈↓their␈α⊃rebuttals␈α⊃immediately,␈α⊃and␈α⊃a␈α⊃reader␈α⊃of␈α⊃the␈α⊃original␈α⊃who␈α⊃asks␈α⊃the␈α⊃library␈α⊃about␈α⊃a␈α⊃rebuttal
␈↓ α,␈↓will␈α⊃be␈α⊃able␈α⊃to␈α⊃≡nd␈α⊃it␈α⊃immediately.␈α⊃ This␈α⊃will␈α⊃have␈α⊃a␈α⊃powerful␈α⊃e≥ect␈α⊃on␈α⊃public␈α⊃debate,␈α⊃because
␈↓ α,␈↓anyone␈α∃who␈α∃writes␈α∃something␈α∃controversial␈α∃will␈α∃have␈α∃to␈α∃count␈α∃on␈α∃his␈α∃readers␈α∃looking␈α∃for␈α∃an
␈↓ α,␈↓answer␈α∀and␈α∀will␈α∀have␈α∀to␈α∀write␈α∀it␈α∀so␈α∀as␈α∀to␈α∀anticipate␈α∀possible␈α∀answers.␈α∀ At␈α∀present␈α∀there␈α∀is␈α∀too
␈↓ α,␈↓much␈α∀hit-and-run␈α∀controversial␈α∀writing,␈α∀because␈α∀the␈α∀author␈α∀is␈α∀not␈α∀kept␈α∀honest␈α∀by␈α∀the␈α∀prompt
␈↓ α,␈↓appearance of answers.

␈↓ α,␈↓Computerization of bureaucracy

␈↓ α,␈↓␈↓ α|I␈α&don't␈α&know␈α&whether␈α&the␈α&organizers␈α&of␈α&this␈α&meeting␈α&consider␈α&bureaucratic␈α&and
␈↓ α,␈↓administrative work to be intellectual.  I shall.

␈↓ α,␈↓␈↓ α|While␈α∂the␈α∂productivity␈α∂of␈α∂industrial␈α∂work␈α∂has␈α∂greatly␈α∂increased␈α∂in␈α∂the␈α∂last␈α∂few␈α∂centuries,␈α∂the
␈↓ α,␈↓e≠ciency␈α↔of␈α↔bureaucratic␈α↔work␈α↔has␈α↔improved␈α↔much␈α↔less,␈α↔and␈α↔that␈α↔mainly␈α↔in␈α↔its␈α↔mechanical
␈↓ α,␈↓aspects␈α∀via␈α∀typewriters,␈α∀printing␈α∀presses,␈α∀xerox␈α∀machines,␈α∀word␈α∀processors␈α∀and␈α∀electronic␈α∀mail.
␈↓ α,␈↓As␈α∞a␈α∂result␈α∂the␈α∂number␈α∂of␈α∂lawyers,␈α∂accountants,␈α∞purchasing␈α∂agents,␈α∂and␈α∂large␈α∂and␈α∂small␈α∂clerks␈α∂of
␈↓ α,␈↓all␈α≡kinds␈α≡has␈α≡multiplied.␈α≡ Some␈α≡people␈α≡regard␈α≡this␈α≡proliferation␈α≡as␈α≡inevitable␈α≡and␈α≡even
␈↓ α,␈↓desirable,␈α↔referring␈α↔to␈α↔the␈α↔"information␈α↔revolution".␈α↔ In␈α↔my␈α↔view␈α↔what␈α↔is␈α↔referred␈α↔to␈α↔as␈α↔the
␈↓ α,␈↓information␈α∩revolution␈α∩is␈α∩often␈α∩just␈α∩bureaucratic␈α∩ine≠ciency.␈α∩ Further␈α∩increases␈α∩in␈α∩standard␈α∩of
␈↓ α,␈↓living␈α!will␈α!require␈α!improvements␈α!in␈α!bureaucratic␈α!productivity.␈α! Since␈α!governments␈α!(and
␈↓ α,␈↓universities)␈α∃have␈α∃little␈α∃motivation␈α∃to␈α∃improve␈α∃their␈α∃administrative␈α∃productivity,␈α∃as␈α∃new␈α∃tools
␈↓ α,␈↓become␈α⊃available,␈α⊃they␈α⊃will␈α⊃≡rst␈α⊃be␈α⊃adopted␈α⊃by␈α⊃companies␈α⊃in␈α⊃very␈α⊃competitive␈α⊃businesses␈α⊃where
␈↓ α,␈↓those who adopt them promptly will survive and others won't.

␈↓ α,␈↓␈↓ α|In␈α⊗my␈α⊗view␈α⊗there␈α⊗are␈α∃three␈α⊗keys␈α⊗to␈α⊗increasing␈α⊗bureaucratic␈α⊗productivity␈α⊗-␈α⊗automation␈α⊗of
␈↓ α,␈↓bureaucratic␈α≡operations,␈α≡expert␈α≡systems␈α≡and␈α≡substantive␈α≡communication␈α≡between␈α≡computer
␈↓ α,␈↓programs␈α∪belonging␈α∪to␈α∪di≥erent␈α∪organizations.␈α∪ Each␈α∪of␈α∪these␈α∪is␈α∪a␈α∪larger␈α∪subject␈α∪than␈α∪there␈α∪is
␈↓ α,␈↓space or time for in this article.

␈↓ α,␈↓Automation of bureaucratic operations

␈↓ α,␈↓␈↓ α|Some␈α⊗airlines,␈α⊗e.g.␈α⊗PSA␈α⊗in␈α⊗California,␈α⊗have␈α⊗introduced␈α⊗machines␈α⊗in␈α⊗their␈α⊗terminals␈α⊗that
␈↓ α,␈↓communicate␈α∩directly␈α∩with␈α∩their␈α∩reservation␈α∩systems.␈α∩ I␈α∩can␈α∩put␈α∩my␈α∩credit␈α∩card␈α∩in␈α∩the␈α∩machine,
␈↓ α,␈↓see␈α→a␈α→display␈α→of␈α→available␈α→∨ights␈α→and␈α→choose␈α→one.␈α→ I␈α→can␈α→check␈α→in␈α→or␈α→by␈α→a␈α→ticket␈α→or␈α→both
␈↓ α,␈↓according␈α∪to␈α∪my␈α∪requirements.␈α∪ The␈α∪next␈α∪step␈α∪should␈α∪be␈α∪to␈α∪allow␈α∪me␈α∪to␈α∪make␈α∪the␈α∪reservation
␈↓ α,␈↓from␈α∀my␈α∀home␈α∀computer␈α∀or␈α∀terminal␈α∀and␈α∀to␈α∀eliminate␈α∀the␈α∀ticket␈α∀or␈α∀at␈α∀least␈α∀make␈α∀it␈α∀machine
␈↓ α,␈↓readable.␈α∃ When␈α∃I␈α∃get␈α∃to␈α∃the␈α∃door␈α∃of␈α∃the␈α∃airplane,␈α∃I␈α∃could␈α∃move␈α∃my␈α∃credit␈α∃card␈α∃or␈α∃machine
␈↓ α,␈↓readable ticket through the slot, and it would let me through.
␈↓ α,␈↓␈↓ ⊂F3


␈↓ α,␈↓␈↓ α|Most␈α∩large␈α∩organizations␈α∩have␈α∩purchasing␈α∩departments.␈α∩ Someone␈α∩in␈α∩the␈α∩organization␈α∩who
␈↓ α,␈↓needs␈α∃something␈α∃≡lls␈α∃out␈α∃a␈α∃"purchase␈α∃request"␈α∃or␈α∃has␈α∃his␈α∃secretary␈α∃do␈α∃it,␈α∃and␈α∃sends␈α∃it␈α∃to␈α∃the
␈↓ α,␈↓purchasing␈α∂department␈α∂where␈α∂various␈α∂requirements␈α∂are␈α∂checked,␈α∂and␈α∂in␈α∂the␈α∂fullness␈α∂of␈α∂time␈α∂it␈α∂is
␈↓ α,␈↓turned␈α_into␈α_a␈α_purchase␈α_order␈α_and␈α_sent␈α_to␈α_a␈α_seller␈α_-␈α_often␈α_with␈α_several␈α_mistakes.␈α_ With␈α_an
␈↓ α,␈↓automated␈α⊃purchasing␈α⊃department,␈α⊃the␈α⊃person␈α⊃who␈α⊃needs␈α⊃the␈α⊃purchase␈α⊃would␈α⊃interact␈α⊃with␈α⊃the
␈↓ α,␈↓purchasing␈α_program␈α_directly␈α_from␈α_his␈α_o≠ce␈α_terminal.␈α_ That␈α_program␈α_would␈α_make␈α_sure␈α_the
␈↓ α,␈↓requirements␈α∃were␈α∃met␈α∃via␈α∃dialog␈α∃and␈α∃then,␈α∃while␈α∃the␈α∃user␈α∃sits␈α∃ther,␈α∃would␈α∃interact␈α∃with␈α∃the
␈↓ α,␈↓programs belonging to suppliers and settle on the purchase.

␈↓ α,␈↓␈↓ α|A␈α↔major␈α↔component␈α↔of␈α↔automated␈α↔bureaucracy␈α↔will␈α↔be␈α↔what␈α↔I␈α↔have␈α↔called␈α↔a␈α↔"Common
␈↓ α,␈↓Business␈α∨Communication␈α∨Language".␈α∨ This␈α∨is␈α∨a␈α∨language␈α∨used␈α∨by␈α∨a␈α∨computer␈α∨program
␈↓ α,␈↓belonging␈α⊗one␈α⊗organization␈α⊗to␈α⊗interact␈α⊗with␈α⊗computer␈α⊗programs␈α⊗belonging␈α⊗to␈α⊗others.␈α⊗ CBCL
␈↓ α,␈↓would␈α⊃standardize␈α⊃inquiries␈α⊃about␈α⊃price␈α⊃and␈α⊃delivery␈α⊃and␈α⊃the␈α⊃actual␈α⊃placement␈α⊃and␈α⊃acceptance
␈↓ α,␈↓of orders, for example.  Many other kinds of dialogs would also be standardized.

␈↓ α,␈↓Arti≡cial Intelligence

␈↓ α,␈↓␈↓ α|Many␈α⊂``expert␈α⊂systems''␈α⊂have␈α⊂been␈α⊂and␈α⊂are␈α⊂being␈α⊂developed␈α⊂for␈α⊂a␈α⊂variety␈α⊂of␈α⊂purposes.␈α⊂ The
␈↓ α,␈↓present␈α⊃expert␈α⊃system␈α⊃technology␈α⊃is␈α⊃good␈α⊃at␈α⊃keeping␈α⊃maintaining␈α⊃large␈α⊃numbers␈α⊃of␈α⊃simple␈α⊃rules
␈↓ α,␈↓such␈α⊂as␈α⊂``IF␈α⊂the␈α⊂Gram␈α⊂stain␈α⊂of␈α⊂the␈α⊂organism␈α⊂is␈α⊂Gram-negative,␈α⊂the␈α⊂morphology␈α⊂of␈α⊂the␈α⊂organism
␈↓ α,␈↓is␈α⊂rod,␈α⊂and␈α⊂the␈α⊂aerobicity␈α⊂of␈α⊂the␈α⊂organism␈α⊂is␈α⊂anaerobic,␈α⊂THEN␈α⊂here␈α⊂is␈α⊂suggestive␈α⊂evidence␈α⊂(0.7)
␈↓ α,␈↓that␈α∀the␈α∀identity␈α∀of␈α∀the␈α∀organism␈α∀is␈α∀bacteriodes''.␈α∀ Notice␈α∀that␈α∀having␈α∀hundreds␈α∀of␈α∀such␈α∀rules
␈↓ α,␈↓does␈α~not␈α~require␈α~that␈α~the␈α~expert␈α~system␈α~know␈α~that␈α~bacteria␈α~are␈α~organisms␈α~that␈α~grow␈α~and
␈↓ α,␈↓reproduce␈α⊂and␈α⊂cause␈α⊂disease.␈α⊂ Indeed␈α⊂it␈α⊂is␈α⊂not␈α⊂even␈α⊂necessary␈α⊂for␈α⊂such␈α⊂an␈α⊂expert␈α⊂system␈α⊂to␈α⊂even
␈↓ α,␈↓reason about processes occurring in time.

␈↓ α,␈↓␈↓ α|Reasoning␈α∩about␈α∩processes␈α∩occurring␈α∩in␈α∩time␈α∩is␈α∩possible,␈α∩and␈α∩a␈α∩few␈α∩present␈α∩program␈α∩do␈α∩it,
␈↓ α,␈↓though␈α⊃not␈α⊃with␈α⊃the␈α⊃∨exibility␈α⊃of␈α⊃a␈α⊃human␈α⊃being.␈α⊃ To␈α⊃make␈α⊃the␈α⊃long␈α⊃story␈α⊃of␈α⊃the␈α⊃present␈α⊃state
␈↓ α,␈↓of␈α∃arti≡cial␈α∃intelligence␈α∃short,␈α∃we␈α∃humans␈α∃haven't␈α∃yet␈α∃been␈α∃able␈α∃to␈α∃understand␈α∃enough␈α∃about
␈↓ α,␈↓humans␈α⊃reason␈α⊃about␈α⊃processes␈α⊃or␈α⊃about␈α⊃the␈α⊃mathematical␈α⊃structure␈α⊃of␈α⊃such␈α⊃reasoning␈α⊃to␈α⊃make
␈↓ α,␈↓computer␈α∂programs␈α∂that␈α∂do␈α∂it␈α∂very␈α∂well.␈α∂ Progress␈α∂is␈α∂being␈α∂made,␈α∂but␈α∂fundamental␈α∂new␈α∂concepts
␈↓ α,␈↓are almost certainly required.

␈↓ α,␈↓␈↓ α|Many␈α∃kinds␈α∃of␈α∃intellectual␈α∃work␈α∃do␈α∃involve␈α∃following␈α∃large␈α∃numbers␈α∃of␈α∃rules,␈α∃and␈α∃there
␈↓ α,␈↓expert systems can help.

␈↓ α,␈↓Keeping track and personal optimization

␈↓ α,␈↓␈↓ α|I␈α≤want␈α≤to␈α≤mention␈α≤an␈α≤application␈α≤that␈α≤is␈α≤on␈α≤the␈α≤borderline␈α≤of␈α≤feasibility␈α≤at␈α≤present.
␈↓ α,␈↓Consider␈α∀a␈α∀program,␈α∀available␈α∀to␈α∀a␈α∀person␈α∀in␈α∀his␈α∀home␈α∀and␈α∀workplace,␈α∀that␈α∀would␈α∀help␈α∀him
␈↓ α,␈↓optimize␈α∂personal␈α∂decisions␈α∂and␈α∂remind␈α∂him␈α∂of␈α∂important␈α∂considerations.␈α∂ For␈α∂example,␈α∂if␈α∂a␈α∂trip
␈↓ α,␈↓was␈α∂necessary,␈α∂it␈α∂would␈α∂remember␈α∂goals␈α∂and␈α∂obligations␈α∂that␈α∂it␈α∂had␈α∂been␈α∂told␈α∂about␈α∂and␈α∂suggest
␈↓ α,␈↓ways␈α⊃of␈α⊃achieving␈α⊃several␈α⊃with␈α⊃the␈α⊃same␈α⊃trip␈α⊃and␈α⊃how␈α⊃this␈α⊃might␈α⊃be␈α⊃done.␈α⊃ It␈α⊃would␈α⊃also␈α⊃help
␈↓ α,␈↓its␈α⊗user␈α⊗avoid␈α⊗contracting␈α⊗incompatible␈α⊗obligations.␈α⊗ Such␈α⊗a␈α⊗program␈α⊗requires␈α⊗common␈α⊗sense
␈↓ α,␈↓information␈α⊗about␈α⊗the␈α⊗e≥ects␈α⊗and␈α⊗side-e≥ects␈α⊗of␈α⊗many␈α⊗kinds␈α⊗of␈α⊗actions.␈α⊗ It␈α⊗also␈α⊗requires␈α⊗the
␈↓ α,␈↓ability␈α∩to␈α∩reason␈α∩about␈α∩goals␈α∩and␈α∩to␈α∩use␈α∩its␈α∩knowledge␈α∩of␈α∩actions␈α∩to␈α∩plan␈α∩their␈α∩achievement.␈α∩ It
␈↓ α,␈↓needs␈α↔to␈α↔be␈α↔able␈α↔to␈α↔reason␈α↔about␈α↔the␈α↔e≥ects␈α↔of␈α↔events␈α↔concurrent␈α↔with␈α↔the␈α↔actions␈α↔it␈α↔might
␈↓ α,␈↓suggest␈α~to␈α~its␈α~advisee.␈α~ Achieving␈α~these␈α~abilities,␈α~required␈α~for␈α~a␈α~good␈α~adviser,␈α~is␈α~probably
␈↓ α,␈↓possible␈α⊃with␈α⊃the␈α⊃present␈α⊃understanding␈α⊃of␈α⊃arti≡cial␈α⊃intelligence,␈α⊃but␈α⊃it␈α⊃hasn't␈α⊃been␈α⊃done␈α⊃in␈α⊃any
␈↓ α,␈↓generally useful way.
␈↓ α,␈↓␈↓ ⊂F4


␈↓ α,␈↓Expanding the right of initiative

␈↓ α,␈↓␈↓ α|I cannot resist mentioning one grand vision, even though it is probably still far o≥.

␈↓ α,␈↓␈↓ α|Many␈α⊂people␈α⊂have␈α⊂ideas␈α⊂of␈α⊂how␈α⊂something␈α⊂might␈α⊂be␈α⊂done␈α⊂better.␈α⊂ Most␈α⊂ideas␈α⊂are␈α⊂both␈α⊂bad
␈↓ α,␈↓and␈α∂old,␈α∂but␈α∂a␈α∂few␈α∂are␈α∂worthwhile.␈α∂ While␈α∂good␈α∂new␈α∂ideas␈α∂are␈α∂rare,␈α∂they␈α∂are␈α∂what␈α∂moves␈α∂society
␈↓ α,␈↓forward␈α~-␈α~yes␈α~forward.␈α~ Unfortunately,␈α~most␈α~good␈α~new␈α~ideas␈α~lie␈α~undeveloped,␈α~because␈α~our
␈↓ α,␈↓society␈α⊃is␈α⊃not␈α⊃very␈α⊃good␈α⊃at␈α⊃recognizing␈α⊃the␈α⊃good␈α⊃ones,␈α⊃developing␈α⊃them␈α⊃to␈α⊃a␈α⊃practical␈α⊃level␈α⊃and
␈↓ α,␈↓putting␈α∃them␈α∃into␈α∃practice.␈α∃ Indeed␈α∃the␈α∀ability␈α∃to␈α∃and␈α∃resources␈α∃required␈α∃to␈α∃put␈α∃an␈α∃invention
␈↓ α,␈↓into␈α∞practice␈α∂is␈α∂much␈α∂greater␈α∂than␈α∂that␈α∂required␈α∞to␈α∂make␈α∂one.␈α∂ Perhaps␈α∂that's␈α∂why␈α∂entrepreneurs
␈↓ α,␈↓are often richer than inventors.

␈↓ α,␈↓␈↓ α|The␈α⊂possibilities␈α⊂for␈α⊂getting␈α⊂a␈α⊂good␈α⊂new␈α⊂idea␈α⊂adopted␈α⊂vary␈α⊂according␈α⊂to␈α⊂the␈α⊂≡eld.␈α⊂ The␈α⊂best
␈↓ α,␈↓situation␈α↔is␈α↔in␈α↔mathematics␈α↔and␈α↔the␈α↔theoretical␈α↔parts␈α↔of␈α↔other␈α↔sciences.␈α↔ There␈α↔one␈α↔proposes
␈↓ α,␈↓ideas␈α_by␈α_writing␈α_papers␈α_and␈α_submitting␈α_them␈α_to␈α_scienti≡c␈α_journals.␈α_ Most␈α_journals␈α_send␈α_all
␈↓ α,␈↓submitted␈α∪papers␈α∪to␈α∪referees␈α∪(experts␈α∪in␈α∪the␈α∪≡eld)␈α∪except␈α∪those␈α∪the␈α∪editor␈α∪regards␈α∪as␈α∪obviously
␈↓ α,␈↓inferior.␈α⊂ The␈α⊂editor␈α⊂and␈α⊂the␈α⊂referees␈α⊂consider␈α∂the␈α⊂submitted␈α⊂articles␈α⊂independently␈α⊂of␈α⊂the␈α⊂status
␈↓ α,␈↓of␈α⊂the␈α⊂author,␈α⊂and␈α⊂a␈α⊂complete␈α⊂unknown␈α⊂can␈α⊂get␈α⊂an␈α⊂article␈α⊂published␈α⊂if␈α⊂it␈α⊂seems␈α⊂interesting.␈α⊂ As
␈↓ α,␈↓an␈α⊂extreme␈α⊂example,␈α⊂Einstein␈α⊂was␈α⊂an␈α⊂unknown␈α⊂employee␈α⊂of␈α⊂the␈α⊂Swiss␈α⊂patent␈α⊂o≠ce␈α⊂but␈α⊂got␈α⊂four
␈↓ α,␈↓papers␈α∪published␈α∪in␈α∪the␈α∪world's␈α∪most␈α∪famous␈α∪physics␈α∪journal␈α∪Annalen␈α∪der␈α∪Physik␈α∪in␈α∪the␈α∪one
␈↓ α,␈↓year 1905.  These papers revolutionized physics.

␈↓ α,␈↓␈↓ α|Close␈α∀to␈α∀the␈α∀other␈α∀extreme␈α∀are␈α∀ideas␈α∀about␈α∀government␈α∀policy.␈α∀ Many␈α∀people␈α∀have␈α∀ideas,
␈↓ α,␈↓but␈α∩only␈α∩a␈α∩few␈α∩have␈α∩power␈α∩to␈α∩implement␈α∩anything␈α∩-␈α∩and␈α∩then␈α∩not␈α∩much.␈α∩ Whether␈α∩an␈α∩idea␈α∩is
␈↓ α,␈↓considered␈α∀depends␈α∀a␈α∀great␈α∀deal␈α∀on␈α∀who␈α∀proposes␈α∀it,␈α∀and␈α∀unknowns␈α∀usually␈α∀have␈α∀no␈α∀chance.
␈↓ α,␈↓Even␈α⊂worse␈α⊂o≥␈α⊂are␈α⊂ideas␈α⊂about␈α⊂changes␈α⊂in␈α⊂social␈α⊂customs.␈α⊂ There␈α⊂is␈α⊂no␈α⊂authority␈α⊂at␈α⊂all␈α⊂that␈α⊂can
␈↓ α,␈↓implement them and usually no place to publish them.

␈↓ α,␈↓␈↓ α|The␈α∃idea␈α∃for␈α∃improving␈α∃this␈α∃situation␈α∃goes␈α∃back␈α∃to␈α∃Leibniz,␈α∃who␈α∃said,␈α∃that␈α∃when␈α∃people
␈↓ α,␈↓faced␈α~a␈α~controversial␈α~subject,␈α~eventually␈α~they␈α~would␈α~say,␈α~"Let␈α~us␈α~calculate"␈α~instead␈α~of␈α~just
␈↓ α,␈↓arguing.␈α∩ Leibniz␈α∩wanted␈α∩to␈α∩invent␈α∩a␈α∩mathematical␈α∩logic␈α∩that␈α∩would␈α∩enable␈α∩people␈α∩to␈α∩calculate
␈↓ α,␈↓what␈α⊃consequences␈α⊃would␈α⊃follow␈α⊃from␈α⊃given␈α⊃axioms␈α⊃and␈α⊃assumptions.␈α⊃ He␈α⊃didn't␈α⊃get␈α⊃very␈α⊃far␈α⊃-
␈↓ α,␈↓not even as far as the propositional calculus invented by Boole 150 years later.

␈↓ α,␈↓␈↓ α|A␈α≥modern␈α≥implementation␈α≥of␈α≥Leibniz's␈α≥idea␈α≥would␈α≥involve␈α≥a␈α≥computer␈α≥program␈α≥for
␈↓ α,␈↓checking␈α∂proofs␈α∂in␈α∂mathematical␈α∂logic␈α∂and␈α∂a␈α∂database␈α∂of␈α∂accepted␈α∂facts␈α∂about␈α∂the␈α∂domain␈α∂under
␈↓ α,␈↓discussion.␈α∪ The␈α∪user␈α∪of␈α∪the␈α∪system␈α∪would␈α∪enter␈α∪the␈α∪steps␈α∪of␈α∪his␈α∪reasoning␈α∪on␈α∪a␈α∪terminal,␈α∪and
␈↓ α,␈↓the␈α∞computer␈α∂program␈α∂would␈α∂check␈α∂them.␈α∂ If␈α∂the␈α∞program␈α∂found␈α∂an␈α∂error,␈α∂he␈α∂could␈α∂try␈α∂di≥erent
␈↓ α,␈↓reasoning␈α∩or␈α∩he␈α∩might␈α∩discover␈α∩that␈α∩what␈α∩he␈α∩was␈α∩trying␈α∩to␈α∩prove␈α∩wasn't␈α∩true.␈α∩ Such␈α∩programs
␈↓ α,␈↓exist␈α⊗and␈α⊗do␈α⊗somewhat␈α⊗more.␈α⊗ Namely␈α⊗they␈α⊗help␈α⊗their␈α⊗user␈α⊗construct␈α⊗proofs,␈α⊗and␈α⊗can␈α⊗prove
␈↓ α,␈↓some␈α↔things␈α↔all␈α↔by␈α↔themselves.␈α↔ As␈α↔arti≡cial␈α↔intelligence␈α↔develops,␈α↔the␈α↔programs␈α↔will␈α↔become
␈↓ α,␈↓more powerful.  However, the present programs are usable only in mathematics.

␈↓ α,␈↓␈↓ α|Using␈α∃them␈α∃for␈α∃human␈α∃a≥airs,␈α∃as␈α∃Leibniz␈α∃intended,␈α∃is␈α∃much␈α∃more␈α∃di≠cult.␈α∃ First␈α∃of␈α∃all,
␈↓ α,␈↓there␈α∪has␈α∪to␈α∪be␈α∪a␈α∪database␈α∪of␈α∪agreed␈α∪facts␈α∪about␈α∪the␈α∪common␈α∪sense␈α∪world,␈α∪and␈α∪it␈α∪has␈α∪proved
␈↓ α,␈↓very di≠cult to formulate even the beginning of such a database.

␈↓ α,␈↓␈↓ α|However,␈α⊗although␈α⊗mathematical␈α⊗logic␈α⊗is␈α⊗highly␈α⊗developed␈α⊗today,␈α⊗it␈α⊗still␈α⊗isn't␈α⊗usable␈α⊗for
␈↓ α,␈↓settling questions about human a≥airs.  It lacks something.
␈↓ α,␈↓␈↓ ⊂F5


␈↓ α,␈↓␈↓ α|Many␈α_people␈α_would␈α_guess␈α_how␈α_this␈α_essay␈α_might␈α_continue.␈α_ They␈α_would␈α_say␈α_logic␈α_lacks
␈↓ α,␈↓emotion␈α∪or␈α∪maybe␈α∪it␈α∪lacks␈α∪soul.␈α∪ That's␈α∪not␈α∪the␈α∪direction␈α∪I'm␈α∪going,␈α∪and␈α∪that␈α∪idea␈α∪has␈α∪been␈α∪a
␈↓ α,␈↓distraction␈α~from␈α~the␈α~real␈α~problem.␈α~ What␈α~logic␈α~so␈α~far␈α~lacks␈α~is␈α~something␈α~rather␈α~technical.
␈↓ α,␈↓Among␈α⊃possible␈α⊃other␈α⊃things,␈α⊃it␈α⊃lacks␈α⊃non-monotonic␈α⊃reasoning,␈α⊃and␈α⊃it␈α⊃lacks␈α⊃a␈α⊃formal␈α⊃notion␈α⊃of
␈↓ α,␈↓context.␈α∀ These␈α∀are␈α∀being␈α∀worked␈α∀on␈α∪in␈α∀arti≡cial␈α∀intelligence,␈α∀but␈α∀we're␈α∀not␈α∀far␈α∀enough␈α∀along.
␈↓ α,␈↓When␈α∪we␈α∪are,␈α∪it␈α∪may␈α∪be␈α∪possible␈α∪to␈α∪have␈α∪a␈α∪vast␈α∪expansion␈α∪of␈α∪what␈α∪we␈α∪may␈α∪call␈α∪the␈α∪``right␈α∪of
␈↓ α,␈↓initiative''.

␈↓ α,␈↓␈↓ α|Suppose␈α→a␈α→person␈α→not␈α→connected␈α→with␈α→the␈α→government␈α→has␈α→a␈α→new␈α→idea␈α→about␈α→(say)␈α→the
␈↓ α,␈↓foreign␈α∩policy␈α∩of␈α∩his␈α∩country.␈α∩ Suppose␈α∩it␈α∩is␈α∩a␈α∩really␈α∩good␈α∩idea,␈α∩and␈α∩would␈α∩be␈α∩accepted␈α∩by␈α∩the
␈↓ α,␈↓authorities␈α≠if␈α≠they␈α≠only␈α≠paid␈α≠enough␈α≠attention.␈α≠ Its␈α≠chances␈α≠are␈α≠very␈α≠slight,␈α≠because␈α≠these
␈↓ α,␈↓authorities␈α⊃are␈α⊃continually␈α⊃bombarded␈α⊃by␈α⊃proposals␈α⊃of␈α⊃all␈α⊃kinds␈α⊃from␈α⊃people␈α⊃in␈α⊃relatively␈α⊃high
␈↓ α,␈↓positions.␈α~ Even␈α~if␈α~they␈α→are␈α~entirely␈α~open-minded,␈α~they␈α~don't␈α~know␈α~what␈α~proposals␈α~to␈α~pay
␈↓ α,␈↓attention␈α∪to.␈α∪ Moreover,␈α∪the␈α∪initiator␈α∪of␈α∪the␈α∪idea␈α∪cannot␈α∪know␈α∪what␈α∪facts␈α∪are␈α∪being␈α∪taken␈α∪into
␈↓ α,␈↓account.

␈↓ α,␈↓␈↓ α|In␈α∂the␈α∂future␈α∂Leibnizian␈α∂world,␈α∂our␈α∂hero␈α∂will␈α∂be␈α∂able␈α∂to␈α∂develop␈α∂his␈α∂idea␈α∂in␈α∂interaction␈α∂with
␈↓ α,␈↓a␈α⊃database␈α⊃of␈α⊃foreign␈α⊃policy␈α⊃facts␈α⊃and␈α⊃assumptions.␈α⊃ It␈α⊃won't␈α⊃be␈α⊃easy␈α⊃for␈α⊃him␈α⊃to␈α⊃demonstrate␈α⊃to
␈↓ α,␈↓the␈α∩reasoning-checker␈α∩program␈α∩that␈α∩his␈α∩idea␈α∩is␈α∩good.␈α∩ It␈α∩will␈α∩take␈α∩him␈α∩a␈α∩lot␈α∩of␈α∩work,␈α∩and␈α∩very
␈↓ α,␈↓few␈α∪people␈α∪will␈α∪succeed.␈α∪ When␈α∪he␈α∪does␈α∪succeed␈α∪it␈α∪will␈α∪be␈α∪a␈α∪major␈α∪event␈α∪and␈α∪rare␈α∪enough␈α∪so
␈↓ α,␈↓that␈α⊂the␈α⊂authorities␈α⊂will␈α⊂be␈α⊂able␈α⊂to␈α⊂take␈α⊂the␈α⊂time␈α⊂to␈α⊂consider␈α⊂it.␈α⊂ There␈α⊂was␈α⊂not␈α⊂time␈α⊂or␈α⊂space␈α⊂to
␈↓ α,␈↓do␈α∀more␈α∀than␈α∀sketch␈α∀this␈α∀notion␈α∀of␈α∀an␈α∀``idea␈α∀≡lter''␈α∀that␈α∀would␈α∀get␈α∀attention␈α∀to␈α∀the␈α∀ideas␈α∀that
␈↓ α,␈↓passed its test.

␈↓ α,␈↓␈↓ α|The␈α∪Leibnizian␈α∪world␈α∪will␈α∪put␈α∪a␈α∪premium␈α∪on␈α∪hard␈α∪thought␈α∪as␈α∪compared␈α∪to␈α∪salesmanship
␈↓ α,␈↓or the skills of a courtier.
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